Breaking Out the Bubblescope

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I’m no national basketball expert, but ESPN.com has some guys who are. And this is their latest look at who’s in and who could be in the NCAA tournament field. You’ll notice Mississippi State has not yet attained bubble status in ESPN’s eyes. That could change with a win today. What State does not need is someone like, say, Baylor to up and win a conference tournament. That’s the only way the Bears are getting in despite a 20-win season (5-11 in the Big 12 hurts).

In fact, according to my calculations, only four of the 41 BCS teams with 20 wins have no shot of an NCAA berth – Baylor, Kansas State, Kentucky and MSU. Baylor and State could earn the automatic, of course. And like I said, a win today plus a loss tomorrow might get the Bulldogs in – might.

Here is a summary of the BCS conference teams ESPN.com thinks is a lock and who is not – yet:

ACC: In – Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida St., North Carolina, Wake Forest; Bubble: Maryland
Big 10: In – Illinois, Michigan St., Ohio St., Purdue; Bubble: Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State, Wisconsin
Big 12: In – Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Texas, Texas A&M; Bubble: None
Big East: In – UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, Pitt, Villanova, West Virginia; Bubble: Providence
Pac-10: In – Arizona St., Cal, UCLA, Washington; Bubble: Arizona, USC
SEC: In – LSU, Tennessee; Bubble: Auburn, Florida, South Carolina

Throw non-BCS bubble teams into the mix, and it gets even more complicated. Here’s what ESPN.com had to say:

“So assuming a bubble outsider doesn’t win one of the six BCS football-playing league tournaments left to be decided – and that Memphis (Conference USA), Utah State (WAC) and Utah (Mountain West) win their respective conference tournaments – there are seven at-large spots left for 15 teams left on the bubble.”

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2 Responses to “Breaking Out the Bubblescope”

  1. aknedlik Says:

    I guess I completely disagree that Auburn is a bubble team. They have been one of the hottest teams in the country over the last 10-12 games. I would count them in and Florida out.

    I still think the Dogs have to make it to Sunday and either win or keep it really close to make it to the big dance.

  2. darkcooger Says:

    The guy you linked on Twitter (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/11233762) must be out of his skull. The SEC gets two teams? Really?

    Lately I’ve decided that the SEC’s “down year” isn’t nearly as down as the talking heads like to say. The biggest problem in the SEC is youth, and I think the end of the season has shown that our young players have settled in pretty well. The last few weeks in the SEC have featured some of the best basketball I’ve seen all season.

    Like someone said in the comments to the above link, the NIT could be more exciting than the NCAA tournament this year if the bracket shakes out the way it’s being predicted.

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